NewsPundit.netTM

Why is it that health officials in Beijing stupidly make the same mistakes again and again? Why do they persist in reporting they have the SARS virus under control, when it is apparent that such reports consist of little more than blatant lies and subtle evasions?

On June 3rd the question of official Chinese dissembling about SARS again reared its ugly head in world news reports. A Reuters report quoted WHO officials saying that they had come to mistrust Beijing's statistics showing a fall off in the number of patients being treated for this dangerous new virus. The report raised fundamental questions about Beijing's honesty about the success of their treatment programs. In the words of one United Nations official, * * * "We are concerned about how these cases are being counted. We do not know enough about where these numbers are coming from . . . China has a credibility problem." Quoting briefly from that report:

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday questioned a reported sharp fall in new SARS cases in China, the world's worst-hit country, saying it was "concerned" at how the counting was being done.

The United Nations health agency has warned the only way to beat the potentially-fatal respiratory disease, which has no simple treatment, is through rigorous identification of cases and patients' immediate isolation.

It fears that if the disease, which kills 15 percent of its victims, takes root in the vast Chinese countryside, it could become a permanent health threat around the globe where more than 8,300 people have already caught it.

On Tuesday, China announced just three new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), two of them in Beijing. It has gone nine days in a row with fewer than 10 officially reported fresh infections. * * *

It is now apparent that Beijing and the World Heath Organization seriously disagree over how China is compiling its healthcare statistics. "China, WHO seriously differ over SARS figures" screamed the June 4th headline in the The Hindu , regarded as India's "National Newspaper."

WHO officials appear to be very concerned about the basic adequacy of China's health care in the provinces outside Beijing and other major cities. There have been reports of riots and violence in remote regions from all over China when patients suspected of having the potentially fatal virus are locked away in abandoned school facilities or held in hospitals under armed guard. No one is able to say if patients locked away for such treatment are responding to treatment and are recovering, or have been simply locked away to die a slow and agonizing death.

Chinese military hospitals are also said to be secret houses of suffering and death for soldiers exposed to the virus. Many civilians were rushed secretly into quarantine in military hospitals and there is no information being released by Beijing about rates of cure or alleged "fatality rates."

But forced detention quarantine (i.e. hospital imprisonment) is just the tip of the iceberg.

When a two day meeting of Health Officials from China, Japan, South Korea and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations broke up the people who participated were also very critical of Beijing's attitude toward reporting progress in treatment of this "mystery disease."

The June 2nd edition of the AFP report from Beijing quoted as predicting that "China faces a disaster from the SARS virus." One health minister even openly suggested that something ominous was revealed by the statistics he had seen relating to the way in which the "virus spreads." One has to pause and reflect about the implications of that pronouncement, especially in light of the habitual subtlety most Chinese officials use to express themselves.

On June 3rd breaking news report by the Asia Times caught my eye because the headline was shouting "New SARS Disaster Looms in Beijing."

That report is amazing because of its great attention to detail. It is even more amazing because it almost reads almost like a criminal indictment of Beijing's effort of cover up a brand new SARS outbreak in a large residential complex known as the Beiyuan Gardens. What is truly shocking is that Chinese health officials had not quarantined the project. People were simply left on their own to stay indoors, or leave, or flee into the city or the countryside. It is unknown if any action has been taken as late as June 5th.

In view of the seriousness of the Asia Times report, I urge every reader of NewsPundit.net SARS reports to read it and ask "what is really going on in China."

Clearly Beijing is more worried about the economic impact of SARS on China, than the far greater risk of spreading the disease around the world. The reaction of officials in China has been typical of a rather closed and secretive society consumed totally with "saving face" at every opportunity.

This does not look the least bit promising for those of us who live outside China and who might happen to come into contact only rarely with a visitor from China. As summer is beginning to warm up the virus may be on the wane naturally. The virus appears to be spread by people who have no obvious symptoms at all, just a slight cough or the sniffles.

Get ready for a new and much more serious outbreak in the U.S. during the Fall and Winter of 2003.

I received an Email this morning informing me that a diligent poster on Free Republic has done charts proving that China has stopped reporting its "suspected" SARS cases. It is likely that WHO knows about Beijing's game playing.

When will the major news media pick up on this information?

Posted by Douglas Oliver on June 6, 2003 at 6:30 PM
Updated on June 7th at 9:06 AM)

On May 24th the New York Times reported that the SARS virus has been found in three wild animal species in China. All three species are considered exotic food delicacies. The three species are the Himalayan or masked palm civet, the racoon dog and the Chinese ferret badger. Quoting briefly from the NYT report:

* * * The civet is the Himalayan, or masked, palm civet. It is related to the mongoose, resembles a large weasel and is a threatened species. * * * The scientists also found the virus in the only raccoon dog, a dog resembling a raccoon, that was obtained. Antibodies in the blood from a Chinese ferret badger showed evidence that it had been infected with the SARS virus. * * *

But whether the species were captured in the wild or raised on farms is not known, W.H.O. said. Nor, the agency said, is it known whether humans transmitted the virus to animals or vice versa. * * *

"While it is more likely that these animals harbor the virus naturally, it is premature to say that the virus is found in nature" because the scientists have yet to determine the origin of the animals, said Dr. Klaus Stohr, the head of the W.H.O. scientific team investigating SARS.. * * *

Breaking News About the SARS Virus:

Internet Rumors are again resurfacing about SARS being a man-made virus. Thousands of people have been excited by an old news report that is again being circulated on the Web. On June 3rd a news report from Russia was posted on Free Republic a conservative political forum. No doubt we will hear new rumors about Chinese bio-weapons today.

Medical researchers in China have discovered the SARS virus in a group of people handling exotic animals. On May 25th, the Sydney Morning Herald reported that this news represented another strange factor in determining the source for the virus. Quoting briefly from the article:

* * * Researchers found SARS anti-bodies in five traders of wild animals, but none of them developed any symptoms of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), He Yaqing, deputy director of the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control, told Saturday's Yangcheng Evening News.

The findings suggest that the form of the coronavirus that is suspected to have jumped from either the civet cat or the raccoon dog to humans was actually less lethal than the SARS coronavirus transmitted between humans that has gone on to kill at least 696 and infected more than 8000 worldwide. * * *

The Toronto Globe and Mail reported on May 24th that twenty new SARS cases have been identified. One case has been traced to a visitor who came from New York. Travel alerts have been announced again for Toronto, Canada.

Over 1,000 people are in quarantine in Toronto reported the Toronto Star on May 24th. There are 25 new suspected cases of SARS being treated at one hospital in the city..

Posted by Douglas Oliver on May 24, 2003 at 11:21 AM
(Updated on May 25th at 9:15 AM)

On May 22nd ABC News reported that SARS remains powerful over time unlike more common forms of the flu virus. It is just as powerful in victims far down the "chain" as it was in the very first patient exposed to the virus. Thus far, doctors have tracked the virus through 15 levels of victims in the chain.

This new information shocked and baffled medical experts with the World Heath Organization this morning. Quoting briefly from the report:

SARS, however, does not appear to be weakening. WHO experts are still trying to determine the maximum number of people who have become infected in a single chain. * * *

"With an incubation period of about 10 days, that would be three chinks a month in the chain, so that's how we come up with the 15," he said. "The hypothesis still remains that this all came from one person, so it has passed through many, many people on it's way out through the world."

SARS was first reported five months ago in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong and scientists have traced some infections today back to one original case in the province.

More than 8,000 people have been infected worldwide, with a death toll of 684. In recent weeks, the island of Taiwan has been hardest-hit, with 20,000 people in quarantine and health experts talking about the need for more quarantine space.

In breaking news reports from Taiwan on May 22nd it was learned that there were 65 new cases of SARS reported in a single day on the island. The most recent report came from Channel News Asia.com and also shocked medical experts around the world. Many had been assuming that the virus had been contained in Taiwan and might soon be brought under containment by quarantine efforts.

NewsPundit Comment:

I expect there will be new rumors circulating on the Internet in the next few days about SARS being a man-made virus. It does not appear to act like any other virus known to medical science. The admitted fatality rate for the virus has climbed from early estimates of less than 2% to the latest figures showing 15% to 20%. In the meantime, hospital staffs are being decimated by the disease and many treatment facilities have closed their doors to new patients.

Breaking News on May 23rd:

The SARS outbreak allegedly has been traced to the Chinese obsession for exotic food. The New Scientist reported the virus has been linked to Abyssinian civet cats. By some reports, they are rather nasty creatures. The Chinese are also said to treat these poor creatures rather badly.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on May 22, 2003 at 2:30 PM
(Updated on May 23rd at 7:26 AM)

Mutation fears were leading news reports coming out of Hong Kong. Reportedly, the SARS virus is mutating again and doctors fear that the disease may outrace efforts to find an anti-viral medication that will stop the disease. Now there are at least four different types of corona viruses that have been identified as causing the severe respiratory syndrome that causes terrible suffering and death in its victims.

With the mutations come additional news that symptoms of the disease are also changing. Newer strains of viruses apparently cause more severe diarrhea in patients. But mutations also make identifying the disease in its early stages more problematic. Early detection and treatment are the most important steps in curing a patient with the disease.

The National Post reported this development on May 5th. Quoting briefly from that report:

'The virus is mutating fast,'' said Dennis Lo, one of a team of microbiologists who have just finished a study on the SARS virus.

''Such a quick mutation means that even if there is a cure it may become ineffective. Even a diagnostic test may not be able to detect it if it has undergone change.''

Dr. Lo doesn't know if the new strains will be deadlier or more infectious than the old.

However, the mutations mean SARS patients who recover might not be immune to re-infection

* * * Dr. Lo and his team in Hong Kong isolated the virus in 11 victims and found four different strains. The strains came from related groups of victims, which means the microbe has changed in the two months since it struck the city.

The syndrome's symptoms also seem to be changing. Recent SARS patients in Hong Kong have suffered more diarrhea than patients infected earlier in the outbreak. * * *

* * * If the virus changes substantially, it could also make detection a problem, since current SARS tests depend on identifying parts of the virus. So a single test for all SARS patients would not be effective.

Scientists in Japan say warm weather may signal a break. Their studies show the SARS coronavirus begins to break down in temperatures in the mid-30s, but stayed active at temperatures of about seven degrees and lower. This suggests the virus could survive a winter in Canada.

The disease continues to spread in China. This morning it was reported that SARS now has been identified in more that 6,400 patients world wide and killed at least 450 people.

More Breaking News ! . . .

On May 12th the International Herald Tribune reported that AIDS research offered a clue in SARS fight. It was revealed that the SARS virus attacks cells in the same fashion as AIDS.

"Preliminary tests conducted in laboratory samples of the SARS virus successfully used synthetic peptides to stop it from entering human cells, said the researcher, David Ho, who pioneered the use of an AIDS drug cocktail employing similar tactics"

At the same time the disease was reported to be spreading through " untraceable sources" in Taiwan: With outbreaks spreading mainly within two hospitals, the WHO's site warned that cases had started appearing among people who had no known contact with infected patients, raising the possibility of so-called superspreaders of the disease in the community.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on May 12th that SARS was spreading deeply into China's rural communities possibly by people who had fled Beijing.

There are now over 5,000 cases of SARS in China. This development was particularly grim because medical treatment and hospital facilities are not nearly as good as those in Beijing. At the same time, Shangai reported that four luxury hotels had closed because there were "too few guests to remain open"

On May 10th The World Health Organization raised new doubts about the SARS fight in Beijing and Taiwan. The Straits Times reported that there "were holes in the data" coming from those locations and officials are disturbed about unknown sources of infection in Taiwan. World wide figures showed over 7,200 people have been infected with 521 fatalities.

ABC.net.au reported on May 10th that the Tasmanian abalone industry is crisis in the wake of SARS epidemic because of canceled orders from Asian restaurant buyers.

On May 8th the Daily Telegraph.com.au reported that over 18,000 people were under quarantine in Beijing. This follows immediately after other news sources reported that people under quarantine or who had been in contact with others suspected of having SARS were being forced to destroy their pets!

E-Taiwan News reported on May 8th that animal rights organizations are upset over the wholesale slaughter of pets in China over SARS fears.

KRON-4 in San Francisco reported on May 6th that SARS cases in Hong Kong have a "much higher death rate." The fatality rate for all cases is over 20% and for patients over age 60 the death rate is about 55% .

KAIT-8.com reported that huge riots have broken out in China to protest Beijing's quarantine of patients. There are rumors patients are not being given medical care. Also - Beijing may have 16,000 people under quarantine in China's capitol city.

The Daily Telegraph reported in more detail about three huge riots in different sections of China.

On May 6th The Independent.UK reported that SARS is "more robust" than first believed. It survives outside the body in feces or sewage up to four days.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on May 5, 2003 at 6:00 AM
(Updated on May 13, 2003 at 3:16 AM)

On May 1st the world learned for the first time learned that SARS patients may suffer relapses requiring hospitalization. This was reported by ABC.net.au in Australia this morning. At the same time, it was announced that 5 more SARS patients have died bringing the total number of deaths up to 162 in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's Director of Health, Dr Margaret Chan, was obliged to defend local policies and explained, in part, that it is not uncommon for patients with other diseases to suffer relapses. Fortunately, only 12 patients have relapsed so far.

It is possible that some patients who relapse may still have the ability to shed the virus and infect other people. To quote briefly from the report in Australia:

Dr Chan has not ruled out the possibility that recovered patients could still infect other people.

"We do not rule out the possibility that recovered patients may still excrete a small amount of virus... but it is important to conduct more tests and studies to understand how long a patient will continue to excrete the virus after they have recovered," she said.

Dr Chan also notes that relapses occurred in other diseases, but "this does not mean it is due to a lack of immunity (in the patients)". * * *

This apparent resistance to treatment is a new factor that must be considered by hospitals with SARS patients. The news was greeted with grim determination by doctors and nurses battling this mystery illness on the "front lines." SARS is taking a huge toll on health care workers. They suffer not only a high infection rate but fatigue and emotional exhaustion from working long hours. They also must deal with the reality of quarantine and separation from their families.

The world is realizing today that doctors and hospital staff must put their lives at risk to fight this deadly mystery disease. The courage of health care workers ought to be applauded by whole world.

More Breaking News Regarding SARS and Some Good News:

Nola.com reported on May 2nd that U.S. Military doctors tested a anti-viral cocktail that appears to stop the SARS virus cold. There were five medications tested in the mix. Now they have to find out which medication is the one that worked.

Reuters News reported on May 1st that the virus may be found in recovered SARS patients. This may mean that even patients released from quarantine may still be able to transmit the virus to others.

Channel News Asia reported on May 2nd that Hong Kong researchers warn that the SARS virus is "mutating and very hard to fight." In other words, the virus is mutating faster than medical science can track it. I suggest there will be many more people cancelling planned business and vacation trips to Asia.

UPI reported on May 2nd that the total number of SARS cases passed 6,000 and the virus is mutating rapidly. Medical scientists stand by and wait to see whether the virus will become more virulent.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on May 1, 2003 at 8:45 AM
(Updated May 2, 2003 at 8:40 AM)

The New York Times reported this late breaking news on April 28th. Quoting briefly from the article:

CHAGUGANG, China, April 28 Thousands of residents of this rural town, believing that a local school would be turned into a ward for urban SARS.

Chagugang, an agricultural market town about 12 miles northwest of the port of Tianjin, was quiet this morning but the mood was taut a day after the first riot in China related to the deadly disease. The ravaged junior high school, which was suddenly closed last week for rebuilding into a facility with 200 individual bedrooms, was guarded today by scores of police officers and two buses of paramilitary troops in riot gear. Hundreds more policemen lined the road through the town, preventing residents or visitors from approaching the scene of Sunday night's ugly fracas. * * *

It is unlikely that China will change fundamentally anytime soon . Their economic success story, and seeming embrace of capitalism, really hides the truth about Chinese society. Rather than spreading freedom of expression and ideological openness, the promise of new found wealth is acting to deepen what amounts to "state capitalism." Most of the wealth in China is distributed only to the top levels of the economic pyramid. In other words, the truth is the economic system is deeply imbued with traditions of corruption, petty favoritism and a society that accepts bribery as a way of life.

We in the West deceive ourselves to believe otherwise.

NewsPundit.net is Popular Reading in Asia

Since published our report on April 27th - - which mentioned Beijing has instituted martial law - - the web site has been flooded with visitors from Asia. We had nearly 495 hits yesterday from mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. There have been thousands of hits from Asian countries since we first began publishing our SARS reports. The genetic engineering and bio-weapon reports were of particular interest. On April 7th alone we had over 6,300 hits that resulted from reports about SARS originating in China and bio-weapon rumors.

It seems as though someone on a Taiwan newspaper staff might have been reading my reports: The Taipei Times published a report that mirrored my report yesterday. Today they reported "Martial Law Possible in China over Epidemic," citing Chinese news sources.

It make me feel proud to know that we have been ahead of the reporting curve followed by most U.S. news sources. I note that none of the major newspapers have reported even the possibility of martial law in Beijing.

I guess that makes me a "trend-setter."

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 28, 2003 at 11:17 PM

This was breaking news early this morning in Beijing. On April 27th, the official news agency for the Chinese government, Xinhuanet, released a brief report stating it was authorized by the government in Beijing. That report announced China would start immediate reports on "the latest quarantine areas and the number of quarantined people."

Buried deep in this report was the information which is set out in the NewsPundit.net headline on this beautiful Sunday morning. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * Beijing took quarantine control measures in the following areas: a residential quarter of Renmin Hospital, a residential building of the Central University of Finance and Economics, three dormitory buildings in the Northern Jiaotong University and two dormitory buildings in Beijing Science and Technology Research Institute and a construction site in Dongcheng district.

The quarantine control was also taken in the entire area of Renmin Hospital, 24 designated SARS patient hospitals, and in the SARS patient reception areas of 29 general hospitals as well as the fever outpatient departments in 74 hospitals.

* * * a total of 7,672 people had been quarantined for close contact with SARS patients or suspected SARS carriers and 1,384 people had been discharged from quarantine. * * *

There is no discussion of the fact that Beijing had "locked down access" into the capitol of China. On Saturday, April 27th, that news was announced by SMH.com.au an Australian newspaper with reporters on the scene. The headline on that report announced "Millions Trapped as Beijing Shuts Gates" in an effort to describe the feelings of people who were trying to flee the city for the countryside.

All roads leading into Beijing were blocked and uniformed police or military officers were stopping all traffic. They were demanding to see official medical passes clearing the occupants of the SARS infection. The report did not discuss the endless "red tape" involved in obtaining such an official pass or the impossibility of obtaining one.

In point of fact, Beijing has declared a state of de facto martial law in the official capitol of China. It is noteworthy that none of the official wire services were dealing with what amounts to a daily fact-of-life for this enormous city of over eight million people. In addition, China began arresting people late last week for Internet crimes: posting "false information" on web sites or sending e-mails to people outside China. This is part of the new, very tough restrictions that have been put in place overnight:

* * * tough action is being threatened against "irresponsible rumor spreaders" - words that had previously been used to describe many doctors whose claims about its spread have since been proved right. * * *

This is really a very clever way controlling all information flowing into and out of Beijing. While the government of China is publically announcing a new openness about SARS, they are moving behind the scenes to lock the doors. Martial Law is in effect today in Beijing. It just has not been officially announced by the Chinese government.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 27, 2003 at 12:08 PM

There is more evidence that SARS may be much worse than World Health Officials are admitting. In fact, my research convinces me that health officials are very worried about this deadly new virus.

I am deeply concerned about the correct computation of the death rate percentage. Thus far, authorities are simply dividing the number of deaths by the total number of SARS cases. That causes the death rate to be understated in my view. Some medical experts in public health agree with my position. SARS often requires a long hospital stay and intensive care before the patient is deemed to be "cured." Many patients have been hospitalized for three weeks.

Using a medically accepted formula that considers the number of deaths, the number of infected people and the number of cured patients results in a death rate percentage of 16% or even higher. In Canada, the adjusted rate has been computed to be about 21% and in Hong Kong the death rate is about 25%. (See: "medically accepted formula" link or "Killer SARS" link above)

SARS far more deadly than was first reported:

My personal concerns and suspicions about the death rate was confirmed Friday, April 25th by late breaking reports that shocked many medical doctors. The New Scientist announced the new "fatality rates" for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are 15.8, 18.3 and 13.7 percent. The article was very candid in admitting that their concerns were the same as my own:

But these [percentages] too could be misleading if, for example, it takes longer to recover from a disease than to die from it.

In China, this death rate is only 8.8 per cent. But statistics there are widely mistrusted, after Chinese authorities withheld nearly all information until recently. The Chinese statistics may also include cases of pneumonia due to bacterial infections, a widespread problem there, and which are cured with antibiotics.

One way to resolve the uncertainty over the death rate, say epidemiologists, would be to take a "cohort" of cases that start at the same time, and follow them until all have resolved.

Breaking News - - "Beijing Shuts Gates" - - Saturday, April 26th:

SMH.com.au reports "Millions trapped as Beijing shuts gates" . . . as the banner headline on the possible declaration of martial law in China to control the spread of SARS. Again, I urge you to read the report.

I am personally upset by this report . . .

The Mercury News.com.au reports on April 27th that "One Billion SARS Cases Feared" ... They quote a leading medical expert and speculate openly about "potential cases." Extrapolating a fatality rate of perhaps 5.9% or 7% produces projections that causes one to shudder in disbelief.

The graphic implications of this report really upsets me: Just imagine all the bodies stacked and buried in mass graves - - millions and millions of dead people. It is mind-boggling and nauseating.

I believe it is far too early to be talking about the potential of even a million victims of SARS. Perhaps when we have significant numbers of cases in many more countries. By 'significant numbers,' I mean in excess of 500,000 confirmed cases of SARS. But to engage in speculation at this time really upsets me.

Just my humble personal opinion.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 25, 2003 at 9:37 PM
(Updated on April 27, 2003 at 12:25 AM)

The following report was "breaking news" over the Easter Holidays:

On April 18th, the New York Times was reporting that the death rate in Toronto, Canada was 9.5% and the mystery illness was still spreading rapidly around the world. Now the disease has spread to 27 countries. I quote from that report:

* * * As of yesterday, 27 countries and Hong Kong have reported a total of 3,389 cases. The number of cases in the United States was sharply reduced yesterday, to 35, from 208, when federal health officials, as expected, adopted the World Health Organization's stricter definition of probable SARS cases.

Worldwide, SARS is blamed for 165 deaths, for a death rate of 4.9 percent, the W.H.O. reported.

But for unknown reasons, the death rate in Canada is about double; 12 of the country's 126 cases have been fatal, a death rate of 9.5 percent. * * *

In other reports, medical scientists are openly worrying that China may have greatly understated the number of its cases. CNN is reporting today that China has been secretly moving many of its SARS cases into military hospitals.

The Taiwan News has reported this morning that WHO officials are concerned that by doing so China may have hidden as many as 1,000 cases in military hospitals and intentionally understated the number of deaths reported. As many as 100 to 200 additional deaths from this mystery virus may have been hidden by Beijing. Quoting briefly from that report:

* * * "They (the WHO experts) also estimated there are between 100-200 probable cases in Beijing, more than has been reported, and they feel that there might even be up to 1,000 people who are under observation right now," Heymann told a briefing in Geneva, adding that many of those may not be SARS cases.

The illness has already spread to a number of provinces, cities and regions in the world's most populous nation and Heymann feared the disease could spread further in coming weeks as millions of Chinese take a week-long holiday in early May.

If health officials are correct about the potential number of unreported cases in China, and also about under-reported deaths from SARS, their real concern also may be understated greatly. Assuming that China has understated its cases by only 50% of number mentioned by WHO: the total number of cases would have to adjusted upwards to 3,889. Then the number of deaths would have to be adjusted upward as well by 100 or 200 -- to possibly a total of 265 or even to 365.

That would mean a rather dramatic increase in the death rate percentage from the old estimate of 4.9%, to a new estimated range of 6.8% to 9.3%.

How very strange ... Because the newly adjusted death rate is nearly identical to the rate in Canada today. But I do not want to engage in wild speculation. What I would like is some answers.

What I would like to know is why China is hiding SARS patients from WHO officials in its "secretive" military hospitals. Is their goal to protect the general population ? Or is their goal to confuse health officials and prevent them from learning the true cause of this dreaded disease?

Breaking News on SARS: Death Rate Increases & Canada Extends Quarantine !

CBN News has a new report up on April 24th from the AP. SARS has caused one hospital in Beijing to lock its doors. New deaths have caused the local authorities to raise the "official" death rate percentage to 7% but health officials openly talk about a 10% death rate.

More disturbing information about Chinese genetic experiments with viruses appeared on ABS-CBN News today. Now the reports about SARS as a bio-weapon are appearing all over the Internet. (See My Reports Below)

The Age.com reports on April 21st that the deadly SARS virus acts on several vital organs and acts like a bio-weapon. A medical expert in Hong Kong worries openly about its bio-weapon potential.

A Wired News report filed on April 21st says that a medical scientist has determined that the SARS true death rate might be above 18% and might be as high as 25% in Canada and Hong Kong. That is truly scary indeed.

SMH.com confirms reports virus has mutated and now causes major intestional damage.

Montreal CBC reported this shocking new expansion of the quarantine in Canada.

Arab News published an editorial today supporting the suspicions that this "previously unknown virus" was man-made and was accidentally released by a secret bio-weapons lab on the Chinese mainland.

News24.com reports "SARS Death Toll Surges" and local authorities in China talk of "a crisis of fear."

Yahoo News just reported that China admits to "25 new cases" in Beijing .... Will wonders never cease?

I quote from the report:

* * * The Chinese authorities informed the WHO of only 25 new cases Friday, but Health Minister Zhang Wenkang indicated an announcement would be made about new cases in Beijing. "The minister of health told us we can expect to hear about more cases in Beijing,"

WHO official Jeff MacFarlane told AFP. He said Zhang also "pledged better and more accurate reporting". * * *

Reported SARS Cases in China Spikes !

The Sun-Times was reporting that SARS cases reported by China had jumped over night. Authorities were reporting 79 deaths and 1,814 total cases. The numbers represented a huge jump over the number of cases admitted by Beijing on Friday, April 18th. Officials are still claiming they do "not know about" hundreds of other cases hidden from WHO investigators in military hospitals.

My comment: What was that about the other SARS cases you may have moved into "secretive" military hospitals outside of Beijing city ... ? Was that a polite "non-denial" denial in Chinese ?

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 18, 2003 at 10:55 AM
(Last update on April 25, 2003 at 4:20 PM)

This was the breaking news late yesterday. News 24 was reporting that top Russian medical experts were lining up to express concern about the virus. A brief excerpt:

Nikolai Filatov, head of Moscow's epidemiological services, told the Gazeta daily that he thought the pneumonia was man-made because "there is no vaccine for this virus, its make-up is unclear, it has not been very widespread and the population is not immune to it." * * *

The virus, according to academy of medecine member Sergei Kolesnikov, is a cocktail of mumps and measles, whose mix could never appear in nature. * * *

"We can only get that in a laboratory," he told a conference in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency.

It may have spread because of an "accidental leak" from a lab, he added. * * *

Another top level Russian scientist expressed similar views today. Dr. Sergei Kolesnikov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences was quoted in En Rian.ru that he believed the virus of atypical pneumonia has been created artificially in a laboratory "possibly as a bacteriological weapon." He stated his opinion in that regard in news conference in Irkutsk (Siberia) on Thursday.

* * * the virus of atypical pneumonia is a synthesis of two viruses (of measles and infectious parotiditis or mumps), the natural compound of which is impossible. This can be done only in a laboratory, the academician is convinced. He also said that in creating bacteriological weapons a protective anti-viral vaccine is, as a rule, worked out at the same time. Therefore, the scientist believes, a medicine for atypical pneumonia may soon appear. He does not exclude that the spread of the virus could have begun accidentally, as a result of "an unsanctioned leakage" from a laboratory. * * *

ABC News.au had a nearly identical report up on its web site today. They are reporting that the SARS "Mystery Virus" may well be a Chinese bio-weapon that accidently escaped the laboratory.

NewsPundit is following the lead of the Russians:

I have been biting my tongue for the last week and trying to quiet the bio-weapon rumors that have been floating around. But now I believe the "cat has been let out of the bag." All of the evidence is pointing to a man-made virus. Russian medical science may be years ahead of the U.S., U.K. in its experience with such things. So I reluctantly follow their lead.

The Chinese have a lot of explaining to do. The virus is now "out there" . . . just like the "Truth is Out There ...." One thing they can explain: Was this a test of the World Health Organization, or how quickly the U.S. is capable of reacting to a bio-weapon ?

Breaking News about SARS:

WHO suspects hundreds of secret SARS deaths have not been reported by Beijing. The victims are believed to be serving in the Chinese Military.

SMH.com.au reports that SARS deadly symptoms are . . . very scary.

The Star.com has an AP report up saying Hong Kong officials are very upset because SARS is killing younger, more physically fit victims.

Sky News UK reports that a vaccine may be "years away." Not "months away" which was reported earlier.

New York Times reports that officially designated SARS cases in China are growing rapidly.

Google Links are here.

I will be posting about the SARS virus quite frequently it appears.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 11, 2003 at 4:12 PM

I have been attempting to identify possible sources of the rumors about SARS being the result of Chinese genetic experimentation. My research has led me to determine that the one possible source might have been Patricia Doyle, Ph.D.

Dr. Patricia Doyle apparently has been interviewed on radio talk shows and talk shows broadcast on the Internet about her research into possible Chinese experimentation with viruses. Among the shows she has reportedly appeared on are:

Bill Boshears' Scizone the Tony Gill Show and the Jeff Rense Show. Doctor Doyle also posts regularly on the "Emerging Diseases" Forum. She also has been a guest on Steve Quayle's Internet broadcast.

These shows may have a significant impact on the Internet. Jeff Rense says that he has "over 7 million hits" on his web site each month. By accounts, Mr. Rense is a very competent radio talk show host and guest interviewer.

Here are some excerpts from Dr. Doyle's latest post on the "Emerging Diseases" forum:

* * * I am also spending many hours studying the SARS virus genome as well as all of the latest data.

My opinion is that the virus is man manipulated. There is a portion of the virus that is unrecognizable. In other words we just don't have anything to compare it with. It is quite possible that there is a portion of synthetic "programming" material. There might even be some genetic material from mycoplasmas. The virus has characteristics that do NOT match ANY virus, either animal or human, on the planet.

The fact that we did have samples identify material i.e. organisms of paramyxovirusLIKE (human metapneumovirus) as well as the virus itself consistant with coronaviruses, bovine, mouse and avian, but, not matching any of the 3 grouping of coronaviruses or a human coronavirus. * * *

A new source of Internet allegations and rumors is possibly author Kathleen Keating.

Ms. Keating is the author of several books and is considered to be an authority on Bible prophecy. She also posts information and warnings found in the "Bible Code" on her web site.

Most recently she concluded that SARS may be the result of Chinese genetic experimentation with viruses. I quote briefly from her web site posting dated April 3rd:

* * * Many visionaries whose messages contain descriptions of end time diseases have discussed plagues similar to SARS. Basically, the visionaries are in agreement that this will be an escalating problem, one that could be quite catastrophic, especially in poorer countries. * * * It could be that the doctors who initially succumbed to the disease may have been working on virus manipulation in a lab. The first victims were Chinese doctors. My suspicions are a man-made virus is behind this latest killer * * *

Ms. Keating also indicated that: " Due to the fact that SARS comes up in the Bible Code over 2500 times it was a very difficult code to run. You may read her decoding efforts by clicking this link The code is cryptic in nature but seems to point to an accidental release by a medical "expert."

NewsPundit's Commentary:

I do not pretend to be a medical scientist, or to be an expert in communicable diseases or to have any knowledge of the "Bible Code." What I do know is that the SARS virus is apparently highly virulent. It may be an airborne disease. Also it is apparent that the disease is quite difficult to cure if it worsens into pneumonia.

There are new rumors spreading through the Internet about this "Mystery Disease." There is no conclusive evidence that SARS may be the result of genetic engineering. It is reportedly a "poor choice" for bio-weapon applications because the mortality rate appears to be far too low (< 4%). At this stage, I think it is very wise for people to calm down a bit and to let the medical experts handle it.

Breaking News . . .

News.com.au is reporting that in work hailed as remarkable and unprecedented, Hong Kong scientists have published the first hard evidence that SARS is caused by a novel coronavirus that jumped from animals to people."This is very important evidence," said medical virologist Dominic Dwyer of the Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research at Sydney's Westmead Hospital.

Time.com says doctors in China are making accusations that the Chinese government intentionally covered up the number of patients infected. They are still covering up and have deceived WHO officials. The article is entitled "Beijing's SARS Attack."

New York Times reports that residents of Hong Kong and Singapore will "just have to live with" the SARS threat. They will be spending months, or even years, living in protective masks all the time. They also will have to endure the terror of cockroaches spreading the disease.

Reuters reported late this evening that Hong Kong's entire health care system has been broken down by SARS. "The territory's public healthcare system, one of the most advanced in Asia, has been overwhelmed by a deadly respiratory virus. And, according to doctors and administrators, the worst is yet to come. * * *

The government is bracing for up to 3,000 people infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) by the end of this month, more than three times the number now * * * 10 to 20 percent of SARS patients end up in intensive care * * * and supplies of protective equipment are tight all over the world. * * *

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 7, 2003 at 11:50 PM

(Last Update was on April 9th at 11:40 AM)

The original source is to difficult say because those rumors have been floating around the Internet since sometime early in March. We first found evidence supporting the Chinese experimentation reports when we visited Jeff Rense.com on or about March 18th. Rense had a report by Patricia Doyle, Ph.D. on his web site attributing the outbreak to Chinese experimental work with the Spanish Flu. (March 18, 2003).

Here is an excerpt from that report:

My best guess is that it is either a new version of the Spanish flu or the actual Spanish Flu. It is quite possible that China had an expedition to exhume tissue samples containing live H1N1 flu virus. The US and UK expedition was quite publicized and it is not unreasonable to think that China might have opted to get some samples as well. "Somehow, the flu got loose again."

I was totally against "digging up" Spanish flu samples. It was too risky and the chance of it emerging (NATURALLY) were slim. Of course, once the virus was resurrected, the chance of lab accidental release or intentional was then a factor. The risk far outweighed the benefit.

Later that day NewsPundit posted a report intended to quiet the rumors:

"There are rumors spreading on the Internet about biological warfare. We need to silence those rumors. There is no reason to fear this new virus might be a bioweapon or caused by the accidental release of a man made virus." (March 18, 2003).

A new report about Chinese experimentation with genetic combinations of coronavirus and paramyxovirus with a mycoplasma appeared on the Rense.com site on March 27th.

Whatever the cause of the SARS crisis is it appears that health authorities have moved quickly to isolate infected persons by quarantine. It is far too early to tell if the SARS virus is really under control. NewsPundit will continue to follow the SARS virus and to post breaking news reports.

Other Sources and Reports about SARS:

ClickitNews.com has an emerging diseases message board with reports on the fatal Asian flu going back to early March.

Coast-to-Coast has interviewed guests on the topic of SARS. One recent guest was Steve Quayle, a bioterrorism and preparedness expert. On Thursday evening, April 3rd he reportedly said about SARS:

"I believe it is a genetically altered bioweapon in the making," that got released by accident, Quayle said of the virus behind SARS. He also drew parallels between the current epidemic and the 1918 outbreak of the Spanish Flu which occurred during WWI"

Breaking News About SARS today:

CNN reported earlier today that the initial outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong is very baffling because "Patient Zero" did not transmit the disease to his family.

In another report CNN announced several hours later that Chinese health officials have linked SARS with chlamydia, a common STD bacteria.

Sympatico reports that 61% of Toronto residents are worried about SARS outbreak.

The Age UK.au reports "Panic Infects Airline Industry."

The Boston Globe reports people in Tokyo are in a panic over SARS.

News.com UK reports Hong Kong fears 3,000 news cases of the "Mystery Flu"

The Independent UK reports SARS might "be caused by two virus infections, resembles fatal flu of 1918, and may change to an even deadlier form."

Nature Article says SARS is surprising medical researchers by jumping from species to species. Article mentions genetic engineering as "possible" cause.

My Comment: More Chinese Genetic Experiment and Bio-Weapon Rumors may start flying on the Internet tomorrow.

NewsPundit will post a new report about Internet rumors on Sunday

There are signs that the disease is spreading rapidly. Some "experts" are talking about wild projections of 10,000 SARS cases worldwide by April 20th. Some people do not believe the media. Others speculate openly about a genetically altered virus escaping from a Chinese lab.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 4, 2003 at 3:50 AM
(Updated on April 4, 2003 at 11:35 AM)
(Latest Update: April 6, 2003 at 4:39 AM)

This morning there was news from Jeff Gittings, who is a reporter from Guardian Unlimited . The reporter had just returned from China and his report is shocking.

The Chinese are still stonewalling World Health Organization officials who had requested visits to sites where the SARS virus had originated. Guangdong Province is apparently under a complete information lock-down. Quoting briefly from the Guardian report:

* * * On March 28, after a week in Beijing, the WHO team finally thought it had secured permission to visit Guangdong. Although some information has been passed to the team in Beijing about the original outbreak, much more could be gained on the spot.

Three days later, a WHO statement said only that "discussions concerning a visit... to Guangdong province are continuing". A reported pledge by China to issue daily updates on the spread of the virus had also not yet materialised. * * *

However the identity of the medical professor was learned along with a few details about the initial outbreak of this mystery disease and the strange coronavirus which has been identified as the cause:

* * * On February 21, Liu Jianlun, a doctor from Zhongshan University, arrived in Hong Kong and was quickly admitted to the Kwong Wah hospital.

Mr Liu warned that he was suffering from a "very virulent disease" but no immediate alarm bell rang. Several guests at the Metropole hotel where he had stayed for one night flew home - to Singapore, Toronto and Hanoi - where they spread the infection.

Over the next weeks, 77 medical staff and students were struck down at the Kwong Wah hospital: 50 hospital workers were infected in Hanoi. Mr Liu, the "patient zero", died on March 4.

It is not known whether Mr. Liu was engaged in medical research on the coronavirus at Zhongshan University. What we do know is that the former Sun Yat- Sen University was recently expanded by a merger with Zhongshan Medical Sciences University in November. The university is located in Guangzhou, Capital of Guangdong Province. For those who are interested in Chinese trivia, Guangzhou is also known in China as "the City of Flowers".

To this independent reporter it is very suspect that when Mr. Liu was first admitted to the Kwong Wah hospital he warned the staff that he was suffering from a "very virulent disease" . . .

How did Mr. Liu know that he was a carrier for this new mystery flu? How did he know that it was so incredibly virulent? And why did he travel to Hong Kong? Certainly, it was not merely to seek medical treatment because he worked at a medical sciences university.

To paraphrase Mr. Gittings, to the Chinese "Denial is the Cure" for this mystery disease. Thanks to China's obsession with secrecy and "saving face," perhaps in the future Guangzhou will be known as "the City of Flowering Viruses."

More Breaking News about the Guangzhou Mystery Flu . . .

Flight from Tokyo Quarantined on the tarmac in San Jose, California. People on board were exhibiting signs of the "Guangzhou Mystery Flu."

Hong Kong moves to further isolate the people in the apartment complex. They are sent under guard to two government owned holiday camps.

Mystery Flu Cases Rise to 85 in U.S.

2,200 Cases World Wide with 75 deaths says New York Tines.

New Zealand Herald reports Hong Kong looks like a "ghost town."

More News Breaking . . .

Deutsche Welle reports WHO Officials arrive in Guangzhou to pursuade Chinese officials to let them inspect the hospitals.

China Says Virus Under Control . . . The origin of the outbreak was reportedly geese or ducks.

Channel News Asia Reports Fully Protected Doctor Gets SARS Anyway.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on April 1, 2003 at 11.00 AM

(Updated on April 1, 2003 at 12:09 PM and updated again at 4:54 PM)
(Updated on April 2, 2003 at 5:15 PM)
(Updated on April 3, 2003 at 11:30 AM)

There were many breaking stories about the mystery killer flu virus this past weekend. NewsPundit made the decision to sit tight and to wait before we posted more reports about this major Asian flu virus. Many reports in the international press today read like rehashes of earlier reports.

But we noticed over the weekend that many news agencies and their reporters were logging on to NewsPundit to read our unique take on this new killer pneumonia bug.

The disease is spreading worldwide much faster than expected. While some news sources are still reporting last week's totals as "accurate," there are some reports leaking out with much higher totals. Voice of America reported today that the disease now has appeared suddenly in at least 15 countries and there are at least 1,700 known cases of the killer virus. At least 60 people have been killed by the virus. That report was also the first report that admitted that the killer virus was officially being labeled an "epidemic." (March 31, 2003)

While there is no definitive word yet on the number of people infected there are disturbing signs that officials are treating the virus as though it might be a bio-weapon. First the highlights:

Australia announced today that it may bar re-entry of citizens visiting Asia (April 1, 2003).

Singapore has placed 1,700 people under quarantine and instituted severe penalties for violations (March 31, 2003).

Hong Kong authorities have quarantined about 200 people in a block of apartments. But dozens of families fled untraced into that vast city trying to escape quarantine. (March 31, 2003)

New Zealand decides to invoke its Notfiable Disease Law which empowers heath authorities to forcibly detain and quarantine anyone suspected of being a carrier of the disease. There are approximately 500 N.Z. travelers due back today from rugby football matches in China. (April 1, 2003)

Canadian Flight Bookings to Asia are down 70%.

Time.com Reports Hong Kong and Singapore look like they are being threatened with a biological-weapons attack. (March 31, 2003).

I quote briefly from the Time Article and urge all NewsPundit readers to read that very long report. (It is my hope that by doing so we will help educate the public about how dangerous this mystery disease truly may be):

Hong Kong now looks like a city under threat of biological-weapons attack. Almost overnight the streets have filled with people wearing surgical and industrial face masks, as if shopping malls and subway stations had suddenly morphed into vast hospital wards. Convenience-store clerks, shopkeepers, bus drivers and even TV talk-show hosts are wearing masks, the latter while on camera. Doctors say the devices can hamper the spread of the disease by corralling coughs and sneezes and by preventing people from touching their noses and mouths. Even transit companies and political parties are handing masks out on the street by the thousands, helping calm citizens who are searching for any incremental advantage over this little-known stalker. * * *

Frankly, I just hope that the authorities have acted swiftly and surely enough to stop the spread of this deadly killer virus.

My question today for Toronto health authorities:

When people lock themselves inside their homes as a voluntary quarantine, will they receive the emergency heath care required to properly treat the deadly pneumonia (SARS)? . . . Now that the hospitals have locked their doors to new patients and are treating mostly their staffs and relatives of staff members. I was just wondering .... ?

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 31, 2003 at 1:00 PM

A NewsPundit Exclusive Report:

There have been several rather grave news reports in the past two days about this new killer flu that originated in China. These disturbing news reports are again spreading rumors on the Internet about possible Chinese bio-weapons.

The new rumors are based partly on the rapid worldwide spread of this killer virus and the difficulty in treating the disease. Other factors: are the rapid calls for emergency quarantine of infected persons and the announcement that international airports will be forced to screen passengers. By all reports, the killer flu is spreading more rapidly than first expected. Last week there were about 100 known victims. Today there are over 1,500 worldwide. The death toll this morning was 54.

The rapid spread of this disease lends increasing weight to the evidence that this mystery flu may have been developed in a laboratory. More worrisome, perhaps, is the discovery that the disease first appeared when a Chinese medical professor stayed in a Hong Kong hotel. Casual contact with other guests apparently ignited a worldwide heath crisis. Unfortunately, heath officials cannot question the research scientist because he died from the killer flu.

More Disturbing New Information:

News reports indicate the World Health Organization is concerned about the linkage between two newly identified viruses: One disease is a virus previously known to infect "only horses" and this new disease has apparently leaped from species to species. That is a very disturbing sign and another known marker for identifying a possible bio-weapon.

I quote a brief excerpt from the WHO report:

Research attention is increasingly focusing on the Coronavirus family, though viruses from the Paramyxovirus and other families are also being considered as scientists cast the widest possible net in their search for the cause of SARS. Many are of the opinion that a diagnostic test could rapidly follow conclusive identification of the pathogen. Experts in the network are also considering the theory that SARS is caused by co-infection with two new viruses that somehow need each other in order to cause severe disease in humans. Evidence is strongly pointing to a new virus, or possibly two new viruses, that have not previously been known to infect humans or cause severe disease.

Hypotheses include a virus known to cause disease in an animal host that has jumped the species barrier to infect humans, or a known human virus that has mutated to acquire properties that are causing much more severe disease in humans. It is increasingly certain, however, that SARS is a serious new disease caused by a newly recognized pathogen.

The third disturbing sign is the increasing rate of infection doctors and hospital staff. Many hospitals are rumored to be closing their doors to patients diagnosed with SARS. A doctor with the Prince of Wales Hospital told reporters yesterday that this mystery disease was "[T]he worst medical disaster I have ever seen." Infecting medical treatment personnel is one of the primary and preferred targets of a bio-weapon.

I spoke with an expert in internal medicine yesterday about whether this new killer disease might possibly be a "man-made disease," or in other words, a possible bio-weapon. After considering the evidence set forth above, he said that, "All the signs are there and it is very disturbing." The doctor declined further comment and preferred not to be quoted on the record.

Reluctantly, this independent reporter is forced to conclude that the world may be facing the onslaught of a terrible new killer disease. It is possible the disease may be man made. Even more disturbing is the outbreak of this disease and its timing to coincide with the War on Iraq.

More Breaking News . . .

Recent news reports from Toronto's Globe & Mail indicate that this mystery flu is a close to being a pandemic today. (March 29, 2003). Quoting briefly from that article:

World Health Organization officials now say that the first known case of SARS occurred on Nov. 16, 2002, in Foshan, China. The city is located in Guangdong province, an agricultural area where there are large cattle farms. Guangdong is also a major supplier of food to Hong Kong, which has been hit hardest by SARS.

The Canadian outbreak, however, has its origins in a chance encounter in the elevator of the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong on Feb. 21 of this year. There, a Toronto woman and a Vancouver man crossed paths with a professor from Guangdong who was infected with SARS.

Researchers now believe that professor was a "super-spreader," a modern-day Typhoid Mary who spread the disease readily to others. It is well-established that some people shed viruses much more readily than others, making them particularly infectious.

Foshan University is reportedly where the "Code Red" computer virus was developed and launched on the Internet. That information is apparently fueling new rumors on the Internet about SARS being a man-made virus.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 27, 2003 at 1:25 PM

(Updated March 29, 2003 at 11:49 AM)

Other Reports . . .

CDC's Recommendations on Airtransport of SARS Patients
U.S. Set to Curtail Travel to Asia over SARS !
"Unprecedented Emergency" in Toronto!
Other NewsPundit reports on this Mystery Disease.
Over 850 Major News Reports on Mystery Disease

In today's Herald Sun that was the frightening headline. I quote from the report:

The Prince of Wales Hospital, where Dr Chung treats SARS patients, has had 69 medical staff struck down by the illness.

"I feel terrible seeing my colleagues struck down one after another," Dr Chung said. He said one doctor's lung function was "totally destroyed", highlighting the stress such cases cause among professionals.

China admitted yesterday that the number of mainland deaths was almost five times the number previously acknowledged and infections were double the number revealed by officials until now.

Guangdong officials point to news reports that said 24 people had died and 680 had been infected in that city by the end of February. SARS is poorly understood and scientists have yet to nail down its cause. Chairman of the Communicable Disease Network of Australia David Smith said it was not unlike the beginning of the AIDS epidemic.

As with HIV-AIDS, medical and health professionals were struggling to pin down the infectious organism and must work with "very broad" definitions of the symptoms, Associate Professor Smith said.

Tests are unable to identify bug causing sickness

Breaking new this morning in the San Francisco Chronicle is that the strange illness is a brand new disease. (March 18, 2003) I quote a brief excerpt from their report:

* * *A mysterious, flu-like illness that has stricken scores of hospital workers in Southeast Asia has stumped a battery of tests for known bacteria and viruses and most likely represents a new human disease of unknown origin, federal health authorities said Monday.

At least 14 cases bearing some resemblance to the illness are being evaluated in the United States, including that of an unidentified patient, recently arrived from travel to Asia, who turned up in a Los Angeles County emergency room with a high fever and difficulty breathing.

Patients with the disease come down with a particularly dangerous case of pneumonia -- fluid filling their lungs -- and many of those sickened in Southeast Asia have had to be placed on ventilators. * * * Read More

We will create a new link for our exclusive reports on this Asian disease so that readers may track breaking news reports.

Fresh rumors are spreading rapidly about the origins of the disease. Some people are speculating afresh about laboratory born illnesses and bioweapons. I reiterate my report and commentary from March 17, 2003.

Yesterday NewsPundit Reported: Previously Unknown Chinese Virus Terrifies the World: People Wonder About Biological Weapons

Breaking news yesterday in The New York Times: A strange respiratory disease originally named by health care officials "severe acute respiratory syndrome" (SARS) has just been identified as a previously unknown virus. Identified cases of the new disease have "doubled" in the past few days according to medical officials in Hong Kong. It is now known that the disease originated in Guandong Province in Southern China, where over 350 cases were documented last November.

World Health Organization officials say this new disease "cannot be stopped" by standard anti-viral and anti-bacterial drugs. The virus has spread rapidly across the globe by international air travelers. The total number of cases world wide are not known, but more than 400 cases have been reported by health agencies around the world. There were fewer than 100 known cases just a week ago. People are hospitalized in at least six countries: Germany, Canada, United States, Vietnam, China and Thailand.

Bookings for visitors traveling to Hong Kong from Europe and the United States have not been adversely affected by news of the outbreak. But bookings from elsewhere in Southeast Asia have plunged by up to 80 percent in the last several days as countries like Singapore and Thailand have discouraged their citizens from taking unnecessary trips.

Rumors Spreading about Death Rates:

Rumors have been spreading rapidly about this new virus and its morbidity rate. So far total deaths have been reported to be nine as of yesterday. But there facts may have been withheld and some health officials have issued disturbing comments. I quote briefly from two reports:

From the New York Times report cited above:

Prime Minister Helen Clark of New Zealand asserted today that some World Health Organization officials believe the new illness could be as deadly as the influenza pandemic that killed 20 million people worldwide in 1918 and 1919.

From a report in The Asia Times doctors in Hong Kong are concerned by efforts to downplay threats posed by the disease. (March 17, 2003):

The president of the Public Doctors' Association, Dr Leung Ka-lau, has described the situation in Hong Kong as "red light", without giving further details. He criticized the government for misleading the public into believing that Hong Kong was in the "yellow light" stage. From a report in the New York Post today it appears officials all over the world are angry about the "news blackout" by China. (March 17, 2003): Scientists are furious that China hid a mysterious illness that raged there for months, preventing them from getting an early jump on the pneumonia-like disease that has affected hundreds - including a doctor who visited New York City last week.

"People are upset about this," one American epidemiologist told The Post on the condition of anonymity.

"Things were concealed, they were hidden from the rest of the world. We didn't know how bad it was."

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has drawn worldwide attention and been called a global "threat" by health officials in the past week after nearly 200 people fell ill, mainly in Southeast Asia.

There are rumors spreading on the Internet about biological warfare. We need to silence those rumors. There is no reason to fear this new virus might be a bioweapon or caused by the accidental release of a man made virus.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 18, 2003 at 10:30 AM

From the ProMed Web Site it was revealed today:

Numerous tests have been performed on the 3 patients admitted on Saturday 15 March to the Isolation Unit at Frankfurt am Main with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Tests from respiratory specimens for influenza A and B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses, _Mycoplasma pneumoniae_ and _Chlamydia_ spp. by antigen enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were all negative; antibody tests for dengue, influenza A and B, measles, hantaviruses, _Mycoplasma pneumoniae_ and _Chlamydia_ spp. were likewise negative or unremarkable so far; further test results are pending.

Particles morphologically resembling paramyxoviruses were seen in respiratory specimens (throat swab and sputum) obtained from the index patient, a doctor from Singapore, by the teams in Marburg and in Frankfurt am Main.

It remains to be seen whether this finding can be confirmed -- tests including low-stringency paramyxovirus PCR and tissue culture are currently under way in Hamburg, in Marburg and in Frankfurt am Main. It needs to be emphasised that at this time these preliminary results only indicate a suspicion. Furthermore, even if the presence of a paramyxovirus was confirmed, it is not clear at this stage whether this might represent the causal agent of SARS or rather a coincidental finding.

More on Paramyxoviruses:

The family of Paramyxoviridae contains viruses that induce a wide range of distinct clinical illnesses in humans:- These include measles virus, which in rare instances is followed by subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE); mumps virus, which has symptoms of parotitis, orchitis and encephalitis, and the parainfluenza viruses which are respiratory pathogens .

. Virions are enveloped and enclose a helical nucleocapsid containing single-stranded RNA. Most virions are roughly spherical (about 200nm in diameter) but they can be much larger and more pleomorphic. The virus envelope is a lipid bilayer, studded with virus encoded glycoproteins which have properties of haemagglutination and fusion (the F protein).

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 18, 2003 at 4:30 PM

A Horse Virus ... ?

It was reported this morning by News.com.au in Australia that the killer virus may have originated with a horse virus. I quote an excerpt from that report: (March 19, 2003)

* * *A BUG linked to the virus that killed a Brisbane horse trainer in 1994 has emerged as a likely cause of the mysterious pneumonia-like illness that has claimed eleven lives around the world. Specialists in Hong Kong and Germany claimed to have identified paramyxovirus in two patients suffering from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as the international death toll climbed to eleven * * *

It is too early to tell how widely the bug has traveled and how many are infected.

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 19, 2003 at 2:30 AM

It was announced today by Channel News Asia that many new victims had been infected by this mystery ilness. I quote briefly from that report:

* * * The Hong Kong government says it has contained the atypical pneumonia virus in the territory, but 32 more people have fallen victim to the deadly virus. The suspension of accident and emergency services at the Prince of Wales Hospital continues for another week. * * *

* * * This brings the total number struck by the virus to 197. "We've contained the spread among primary contacts, trying to contain secondary contacts," said Yeoh Eng-kiong, Hong Kong's secretary for health, welfare and food.

China has repeatedly refused to link local cases of the outbreak to its southern Guangdong province.

But the World Health Organization says preliminary studies confirm such a connection.

It has been confirmed that children are also victims of the illness. * * *

An exclusive report published by Access Atlanta says the World Health Organization has found the initial source of the killed bug. He was reported to be a medical professor visiting from mainland China.

An excerpt follows:

* * * The Hong Kong government acknowledged Thursday that a visitor from the Chinese mainland sparked the epidemic of mystery pneumonia that has swept the world, belying weeks of disavowals by the Chinese government.

The admission of the link to the mainland Chinese outbreak -- suspected for weeks by international health authorities -- came as the U.S. toll of suspected cases rose to 13 in 10 states and the worldwide count climbed to 306 cases and 10 deaths.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday there was one suspected case each in Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin; two in North Carolina; and three in California. * * *

Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 21, 2003 at 2:23 PM

The Washington Posted reported this morning that the newly discovered mystery flu is spreading rapidly across the world. (March 22, 2003) Most disturbing is the reluctance of the Chinese government to report the disease to health officials and a tight media blackout. Quoting from that report:

Chinese doctors today reported two deaths in Beijing and 20 people stricken in Shanghai by a disease with symptoms similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome.

The doctors' statements cast doubt on Chinese government pronouncements that the spread of the disease, also known as SARS, had been limited to Guangdong province, in southern China, where it is believed to have originated. State-controlled media have been banned from reporting about the disease since mid-February. * * *.

An official with the World Health Organization, based in Geneva, said it was informed by Chinese officials that no cases of the disease had occurred outside of Guangdong. * * *

Chinese doctors said there were cases in Beijing at least 10 days ago and Shanghai hospitals had some at least a month ago. * * *

On Thursday the WHO reported a total of 350 cases outside China, including 10 deaths, up from 306 cases the day before. Italy and Ireland joined the list, each reporting one case. Most of the new cases are from Hong Kong, hit hardest with 203 cases and six deaths. * * *

The BBC reported early today that the number of deaths from the mystery flu has increased to a worldwide total of 22. We are also posting a link to Google where you may access over 350 news reports about this new mystery killer SARS virus. I quote briefly from the BBC Report.

Doctors are hunting the cause of the illness A Vietnamese nurse has become the latest person to die after contracting a mystery virus, bringing the worldwide death total to 22.

The illness, known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS, had already killed another Vietnamese nurse and a French doctor working at the Vietnam-France Hospital in Hanoi. * * *

Dr John Mackenzie, World Health Organization News of the latest cases comes as a World Health Organization (WHO) expert claims the condition could have existed, unnoticed, for many years. * * * [He] told AFP news agency: "We might well find that the disease, or the agent that causes that disease, has been around for a long time, but we haven't recognised it previously. * * *

More than 750 People Quarantined in Singapore (March 24, 2003)

Breaking news from an AP report .... A brief excerpt:

Singapore's government on Monday ordered about 740 people who may have been exposed to victims of a mysterious flu-like illness to stay home for 10 days in a bid to contain the disease.

Health Minister Lim Hng Kiang said he was invoking the Infectious Diseases Act for what could be the first time since Singapore gained independence in 1965. * * *

From an AP report this morning we learned that the Chinese are giving up information very slowly. We still do not know the total number of people who have died or the total who have been infected to date in March. Excerpt:

BEIJING (AP) - A mysterious form of pneumonia has killed 31 people in China's southern province of Guangdong through the end of February, a local government spokeswoman said Wednesday.

Health experts say it isn't clear whether the deaths are linked to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, a fatal respiratory illness that has spread to three continents.

In Guangdong, 24 people died in the provincial capital of Guangzhou and seven were elsewhere in the province, said the spokeswoman for the Guangzhou city government. She would give only her surname, Ye.

By the end of February, there were 792 cases of infection reported throughout the whole province, Ye said. She said 680 of those cases were in Guangzhou and the remainder were in six other cities in Guangdong.

The spokeswoman wouldn't give details on when the deaths occurred. * * *

. Posted by Douglas Oliver on March 25, 2003 at 5:30 AM

Return to NewsPundit.net